P·1
Federal Reserve Communications — Causal Inference
Do FOMC announcements move markets? Difference-in-differences with clustered standard errors across 96 announcements (2014–2025) identified a statistically significant 12 basis point volatility premium in rate-sensitive sectors (p = 0.043), validated by parallel pre-trends. Synthetic control on the March 2020 emergency cuts showed financials underperformed their counterfactual by 13.6%.
- Python
- pandas
- statsmodels
- SciPy